Syria after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime - hypothetical transformation scenarios
Syria after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime - hypothetical transformation scenarios

Summary/Abstract: This paper outlines possible scenarios for developments in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime. The author distinguishes three main scenarios: further military chaos, maintenance of the status quo, and a political settlement supported by the international community. The chaos scenario assumes that neither party hold a dominant position, leading to further fragmentation of the country, escalation of violence and increased involvement of outside forces. In such a scenario, Syria remains a battlefield for regional and local actors, and no reconstruction of statehood is impossible. The status quo scenario envisages that the conflict is frozen while local agreements and temporary spheres of influence remain in force. In this variant, Syria neither descends deeper into civil war, nor achieves lasting peace. The conflict becomes protracted and debilitating, with a limited ability of the state to exercise sovereign control over its entire territory. The political solution scenario is based on the idea of convening an international conference and reaching an agreement that would involve various armed factions and political organisations. With the help of countries from the region, the Arab League and the United Nations, it would be possible to rebuild institutions, integrate minorities and ensure civil rights to all Syrians. This is the most optimistic vision that requires broad consensus and long-term commitment of outside actors. The author concludes that, while each scenario poses significant challenges, only the path of political compromise offers a realistic chance of lasting stability and reconstruction of Syria as a state. The key role will be played by protection of minorities, return of the refugees and strengthening of state institutions.

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