Мультипликативные модели взаимосвязи ВРП и инвестиции в основной капитал по макрорегионам Казахстана
Multiplicative Models of the Relationship Between GRP and Investments in Fixed Assets by Macro-Regions of Kazakhstan

Summary/Abstract: Income inequality in Kazakhstan, together with spontaneous migration from less developed areas to cities, has created uneven regional development. Some regions are growing steadily, while others are gradually declining. To ensure sustainable development in all territories and improve quality of life regardless of where people live, it is essential to attract investment and use it effectively. Drawing on official data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, this study analyses the dynamics of two key indicators across macroregions for 2005 to 2023: investment in fixed capital and gross regional product, GRP. The study is based on the hypothesis that, given the correlation between GRP and investment in fixed capital, it is possible to construct economic and mathematical models that improve investment management by maximizing the multiplier effect in Kazakhstan’s economy. The results show that the strongest correlation between GRP and investment in fixed capital is observed in the Eastern and Northern macroregions. The accelerator coefficients indicate that growth in GRP and GDP in all macroregions, as well as in Kazakhstan as a whole, stimulates increased investment in fixed capital. However, the rates of investment growth differ across regions, as demonstrated by the analysis of the accelerator function. Growth in GRP enhances a territory’s capacity to attract additional investment, thereby stimulating higher investment activity among economic agents. This increased investment, in turn, drives structural transformation in the national economy and amplifies each region’s contribution to the country’s overall GDP. The multiplicative models developed in this study provide a robust basis for forecasting future investment in fixed capital and GRP.

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