Decline in Global GDP Growth after Solar Maximums (1961–2024)
Decline in Global GDP Growth after Solar Maximums (1961–2024)
Author(s): Vladimir BelkinSubject(s): Economy, Supranational / Global Economy
Published by: Институт за икономически изследвания при Българска академия на науките
Keywords: global GDP; economic cycles; solar activity cycles; Wolf number; economic crisis
Summary/Abstract: The article uses the methodological approach developed by W.S. Jevons and A.L. Chizhevsky. The author found that for the years 1961–2024, immediately after each solar maximum, there was a general decrease in global GDP by an average of -1.903% over two years. The correlation coefficient of Wolf numbers in the years of maximum solar activity and the subsequent decrease in worldwide GDP percentage is -0.806. This made it possible to develop a forecast for a decrease in global GDP for 2025 and 2026 as a whole by -2.2%. The forecast value of annual GDP growth in 2025 around the world is 2.32%. The next years of high economic growth are expected to be 2027, 2028, and 2029, with projected annual global GDP growth of 4.38, 4.29, and 3.85 (%), respectively.
Journal: Икономическа мисъл
- Issue Year: 2026
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 84-93
- Page Count: 10
- Language: English
