Stimulating the Housing Market: the Case of Poland ’s '2% Safe Mortgage' Policy
Stimulating the Housing Market: the Case of Poland ’s '2% Safe Mortgage' Policy
Author(s): Piotr Palac, Karol WałachowskiSubject(s): National Economy, Micro-Economics, Economic policy, Financial Markets, Public Finances, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: AV ČR - Akademie věd České republiky - Sociologický ústav
Keywords: housing market; dwelling price inflation; mortgage credits; VAR model; Poland;
Summary/Abstract: This study examines the impact of Poland ’s ‘2% Safe Mortgage ’ policy on dwelling price inflation in both the primary and secondary markets. Using quarterly data from Q2 2 011 to Q4 2024 for the seven largest cities in Poland and a VAR model with forecast scenarios, the analysis finds that the policy had a measurable effect on price dynamics. In the primary market, the credit shock led to an additional increase in dwelling price inflation of approximately 6.7 percentage points by the third quarter. In the secondary market, the effect was stronger, reaching around 7.4 percentage points compared to a no-policy scenario. A significant share of price growth was also driven by indirect factors, including expectations of further increases. The analysis shows the importance of well-designed government policy in shaping housing market outcomes and mitigating unintended price pressures.
Journal: Critical Housing Analysis
- Issue Year: 12/2025
- Issue No: 2
- Page Range: 167-183
- Page Count: 17
- Language: English
