Wynik finansowy netto a konsensus rynkowy w postpandemicznej rzeczywistości gospodarczej – przykład Giełdy Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie
Net financial results versus market consensus in the post-pandemic reality – a case study of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

Summary/Abstract: Purpose: The main objective of the paper is to verify the differences between the financial results presented in quarterly reports provided by issuers listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) and the market consensus published by the Polish Press Agency (PAP). Methodology/approach: The study period covers information submitted about net financial results in all the quarterly reports of issuers grouped in the WIG20 and mWIG40 indices and the market consensus of them between the second quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024. The statistical significance of the differences between these values was evaluated using the Wilcoxon matched-pairs test. Findings: The statistical verification of the 330 quarterly financial results revealed that the values differ significantly from the forecasts published within the PAP consensus. Interestingly, these differences are particularly visible in the case of issuers in the mWIG40 index. Research limitations/implications: The research results indicate that using the market consensus published by PAP to evaluate the future financial performance of WSE issuers may bear a significant risk of inaccuracy. Thus, research in this area requires further development due to the main limitation of this study, which was that it focused only on the WSEʼs largest stock exchange issuers. Originality/value: This study is the first attempt to estimate the possibility of using PAPʼs market consensus of listed companiesʼ results to determine their future financial results in the post-pandemic reality. The results indicate that the market consensus differed statistically significantly from the final published results, which indicates its limited use for investors.

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