СПОЉНА ТРГОВИНА ЈУГОСЛАВИЈЕ У ПЕРИОДУ АДМИНИСТРАТИВНОГ СОЦИЈАЛИЗМА: ЕГЗОГЕНИ ФАКТОРИ (НЕ)УСПЕХА И УЧИНАК (1946–1952)
YUGOSLAVIA’S FOREIGN TRADE DURING THE PERIOD OF ADMINISTRATIVE SOCIALISM: EXOGENOUS FACTORS OF (THE LACK OF) SUCCESS, AND ITS IMPACT (1946–1952)

Summary/Abstract: This article, drawing on archival sources, statistical data, and both historical and economic literature, examines the external factors that shaped the performance of foreign trade in socialist Yugoslavia during the period of administratively managed economic governance. The concept of exogeneity is explored in relation to the broader context of international trade activity, encompassing economic, political, social, and other developments – both domestic and international – that influenced the foreign trade system and apparatus, while originating outside of it. The study identifies a range of exogenous factors affecting foreign trade outcomes, which may be categorized as inherited, ideological, economic, and other factors with economic consequences. Each of these categories – often overlapping – includes several more specific elements. Particularly significant were the country’s challenging economic and social legacy, as well as the influence of ideology on economic policy and practice. Key determinants of foreign trade performance included the course of industrialization, international political and economic relations, the structure of global exchange, a persistent shortage of foreign currency, and the weakness of the dinar exchange rate. The cumulative impact of these factors resulted in a structurally imbalanced foreign trade sector, characterized by a substantial trade deficit and a general failure to meet the expectations of planners and economic policymakers that exports would adequately finance the economy’s need for foreign means of payment.

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