Do mortgages bolster confidence in retirement incomes? A cross-country analysis
Do mortgages bolster confidence in retirement incomes? A cross-country analysis

Summary/Abstract: This study investigates the role of mortgage debt in shaping individuals' confidence in their retirement preparedness, with a particular emphasis on the influence of housing market models across European countries. Using data from the Flash Eurobarometer survey, logistic regression models are applied to examine the effects of homeownership, mortgage debt, and additional liabilities on retirement confidence. The findings reveal that owning a home with a mortgage generally enhances confidence by approximately 30%. However, this positive effect is significantly offset when mortgage debt is accompanied by other liabilities, reducing confidence levels. Cross-country analysis shows that individuals in owner-dominated housing markets tend to exhibit lower confidence compared to those in tenant-focused markets, suggesting that broader economic conditions and institutional frameworks play a critical role in mediating these effects. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the findings across model specifications, weighting adjustments, and interactions. The study concludes that while mortgage debt can support retirement confidence, its effects are highly context-dependent. These findings underline the need for integrated housing and retirement policies to ensure financial security in ageing societies, particularly in the context of diverse housing market structures.

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