FORECASTING IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS
FORECASTING IN CONFLICT SITUATIONS

Summary/Abstract: Conflicts as social relations are phenomena that are difficult to avoid and arise as a result of different perceptions and disagreements in relations for the purpose of achieving certain goals, hence the question arises whether they will further manifest as political (non-violent) or in a violent way. Forecasting can be especially useful in important conflicts, as it contributes to the perception of the potential development of events in the future, and thus influences the preparation of an adequate response for action, since surprise in conflict situations can lead to an unexpected and undesirable outcome. Hence, the primary hypothesis of this paper is that forecasting has serious positive implications in the management process in conflict situations, and as a result of forecasting, potential dangers can be promptly detected and practically analyzed, thus achieving in a certain way a higher level of readiness. The purpose of this research is to obtain in-depth knowledge about the role of forecasting and the benefits it can provide in the process of managing conflict situations through analysis. Considering the complexity and multidimensionality of this research, the methodology applied in this paper includes a content analysis method, a description method, a data analysis and interpretation method, an induction and deduction method, and a comparative analysis method.

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