Spurious “Non-State Actors” in the International Conflict-Navigating the Fog of Plausible Deniability and Disinformation
Spurious “Non-State Actors” in the International Conflict-Navigating the Fog of Plausible Deniability and Disinformation

Summary/Abstract: While Russia’s full-scale invasion since 2022 is unequivocally classified as an interstate war, international conflict resolution programs continue to categorize the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine from 2014 to 2021 as an intrastate or civil war, fought between the Ukrainian government and the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” in the Donbas. Although civil wars can be internationalized through third-party interventions, reclassification as an interstate conflict under the current criteria of the Correlates of War project requires proof that the intervening state is the primary combatant—leading majority of battlefield operations and causing the highest number of battle deaths to the opposing side. However, such evidence is difficult to establish in cases involving plausible deniability and disinformation, as exemplified by Russia’s undeclared war against Ukraine prior to 2022. This article instead argues for examining the political agency of purported “non-state actors”—scrutinizing who constitutes them, how they are formed, and whether they

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