PROJECTED LAND USE LAND COVER DYNAMICS AND TOURISM SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE SELECTED KAZAKHSTAN AREA
PROJECTED LAND USE LAND COVER DYNAMICS AND TOURISM SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE SELECTED KAZAKHSTAN AREA

Summary/Abstract: This study presents a comprehensive assessment of land use land cover (LULC) dynamics and their influence on tourism development potential in the Konaev city (south eastern Kazakhstan) region, based on multi-temporal analysis of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for 2017, 2024, and a projected scenario for 2030. The findings reveal substantial landscape transformation driven by urban expansion and agricultural intensification – evidenced by a sharp decline in grasslands (from 53% to 35%) and wetlands (from 0.7% to 0.2%), and a significant increase in croplands (from 1% to 14%) and built-up areas (from 10% to 18%). A spatially weighted tourism suitability analysis identified three strategic development directions: ecotourism (39.2%), aquatic tourism (36.7%), and urban-cultural tourism (20.1%). While the region demonstrates high tourism potential, the ongoing degradation of natural ecosystems presents critical challenges to sustainability. These trends emphasize the urgent need for integrated land-use planning that aligns tourism growth with ecosystem preservation. The study concludes that sustainable tourism in the Konaev city requires a science-informed, multisectoral approach balancing environmental stewardship with infrastructure development and service quality enhancement. Such a framework can ensure resilient, diversified tourism growth and contribute meaningfully to regional economic and ecological sustainability.

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