Геоекономічна трансформація зовнішніх зв’язків російської федерації в умовах війни та роль експорту енергоносіїв
Geo-economic Transformation of the Russian Federation’s External Relations under Wartime Conditions and the Role of Energy Exports

Summary/Abstract: Purpose: This study examines the geo-economic transformation of the Russian Federation’s external economic relations under conditions of fullscale war and international sanctions, with a particular focus on energy exports as the principal factor sustaining foreign trade performance and external economic resilience. Design/Method/Approach: The research applies descriptive statistical analysis, comparative trade analysis, correlation analysis, and scenariobased assessment. Empirical evidence is drawn from official international databases (World Bank, UN Comtrade, Eurostat), energy market statistics, and sanctions monitoring platforms. The relationship between Russia’s foreign trade balance and global oil prices is assessed using Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients for the period 2020–2024. Findings: The results show that the relative stability of Russia’s foreign trade during the war period is not the outcome of structural adaptation or diversification but rather reflects the dominant role of energy exports. A strong positive correlation between oil prices and the trade balance confirms that export revenues and the formal trade surplus are largely price-driven. Simultaneously, high-technology imports, investment flows, and integration into global value chains display systematic degradation. Theoretical Implications: The study contributes to geo-economic and sanctions literature by empirically substantiating the resource-based nature of external economic resilience under conditions of coercive economic pressure. It reinforces classical geo-economic frameworks linking natural resources, trade structures, and military-economic capacity, demonstrating their continued relevance in contemporary wartime economies. Practical Implications: The findings provide policy-relevant insights into the effectiveness and structural limitations of sanctions regimes in resource-dependent economies. They may inform policymakers, international organizations, and analysts in refining sanction design, energy market regulation, and long-term strategies aimed at reducing vulnerabilities associated with resource rent dependence. Originality/Value: By combining geo-economic theory with empirical validation, the study explains the apparent paradox between severe sanctions and the continued functioning of Russia’s external trade. Paper Type: Empirical

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