The Role of the Brexit Referendum and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Changing Patterns of Hungarian Migration to the United
The Role of the Brexit Referendum and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Changing Patterns of Hungarian Migration to the United

Summary/Abstract: Although the United Kingdom was the primary destination for Hungarian emigrants in the period following EU accession, since the second half of the 2010s there has been a considerable decline, while the number of Hungarian return migrants from the UK has been higher than ever. Using longitudinal administrative data spanning from 2010 to 2022, this paper investigates whether two historical events, namely the Brexit referendum and the COVID-19 pandemic, have contributed to the observed changes in migration trends and the structural shifts in the composition and patterns of migration that have resulted from them. The results show that the Brexit referendum has had a lasting negative impact on Hungarian emigration to the UK and has significantly encouraged the return of Hungarians. Meanwhile, the temporary shifts in Hungarian migration patterns towards EU Member States caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic are not similarly reflected in migration patterns towards the UK. The social base of the post-Brexit emigration gradually broadened. Nevertheless, when compared to EU destination countries, emigrants to the UK are characterised by a younger and more positively selected group in labour-market terms.

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