Методологія сценарного планування післявоєнного відновлення України
Methodology of Scenario-Based Planning for Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery

Summary/Abstract: Purpose: To substantiate the use of a scenario-based approach for planning the processes of Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery under conditions of high uncertainty in resource provision and multichannel financing. Design/Method/Approach: A conceptual framework is proposed, based on recursive modeling techniques to develop scenario planning. The study includes analytical review of publications, macroeconomic estimates of war-related damages, and modeling of interdependencies between funding, labor force, and project implementation timelines. Findings: The article introduces a methodology for scenario-based planning using recursive functions and bifurcation points to assess and adjust project execution timelines. It presents models for calculating financial, labor, and material needs depending on the evolution of recovery scenarios. Theoretical Implications: The study formalizes a new model of scenario planning applicable to exceptionally large-scale projects characterized by uncertainty, expanding the boundaries of traditional state-level strategic planning. Practical Implications: The proposed methodology can be applied by government institutions, international donors, and investors to manage recovery processes in real time, adapting to changes in supply and financing conditions. Originality/Value: This paper is the first to formalize scenario-based planning for post-war recovery using recursive logic and bifurcation point analysis, introducing an innovative tool for strategic macroeconomic planning. Research Limitations/Future Research: The model does not account for regional disparities or political risks. Future research could empirically validate the framework within pilot recovery projects or adapt it to specific economic sectors. Paper Type: Conceptual

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