Küresel Güçlerin Rekabeti ve Afganistan’ın Kaderi: ABD, Çin ve Rusya’nın Müdahalelerinin Siyasi İstikrarsızlıktaki Rolünün İncelenmesi
Global Power Competition and the Fate of Afghanistan: Examining the Role of US, Chinese, and Russian Interventions in Political Instability

Summary/Abstract: Afghanistan, owing to its unique geostrategic position at the heart of Asia, has historically served as a focal point of great power competition. Located at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia, the country represents a pivotal arena in global security and strategic dynamics. Following the September 11, 2001 attacks and the subsequent U.S. military intervention, Afghanistan became a major geostrategic battleground among the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and the Russian Federation. This rivalry extends beyond the military domain to include political, economic, and security dimensions. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the interventions of these three global powers in Afghanistan and assess their impact on the country’s political stability and security structure. Based on John Mearsheimer’s Offensive Realism theory and employing a geostrategic analytical framework, the research demonstrates that the competitive behavior of the major powers driven by the pursuit of influence and relative power has contributed to the weakening of state institutions, the perpetuation of instability, and the deepening of Afghanistan’s political dependency. The study applies a descriptive–analytical methodology, utilizing qualitative content analysis of academic sources, policy reports, and credible international documents. The findings reveal that, despite differing in approach U.S. direct military intervention, China’s economic diplomacy, and Russia’s multilateral balancing policies all three have ultimately led to the erosion of Afghanistan’s internal capacities and the failure of sustainable state-building. The U.S. withdrawal in 2021 marked not merely the end of a military mission but the beginning of a redefined geostrategic balance in Afghanistan and the surrounding region. The study concludes that as long as great power competition in Afghanistan persists within the logic of offensive realism, achieving lasting political stability will remain unlikely. Accordingly, multilateral cooperation frameworks and regional confidence-building mechanisms are essential for mitigating the negative impacts of global power rivalries and fostering national sovereignty and durable stability in Afghanistan.

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