The Offensive Realist Logic of Iran’s Nuclear Program: Power Maximization and the Pursuit of Regional Hegemony (1950-2025)
The Offensive Realist Logic of Iran’s Nuclear Program: Power Maximization and the Pursuit of Regional Hegemony (1950-2025)

Summary/Abstract: This study analyzes Iran’s nuclear program (1950–2025) through the lens of offensive realism, arguing that Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are a rational expression of its pursuit of regional hegemony and power maximization. The central research question is how Iran's nuclear program, under the conditions of international anarchy, reflects the power maximization principles of offensive realism. The failure of liberal institutional mechanisms such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities is explained through security dilemmas arising from the anarchic nature of the international system. Employing a qualitative historical-analytical method, the study finds that Iran has adopted a nuclear hedging strategy in response to sanctions and military threats. Key findings demonstrate that Iran’s 60% uranium enrichment and obstruction of safeguards inspections exemplify offensive realism’s logic of “relative gains.” The study concludes that nonproliferation efforts will remain ineffective unless structural sources of insecurity are addressed.

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