ASSESSMENT OF BLACK ICE RISK LEVELS IN THE CITY CENTER OF ERZURUM (TURKEY) USING GEOSPATIAL DATA
ASSESSMENT OF BLACK ICE RISK LEVELS IN THE CITY CENTER OF ERZURUM (TURKEY) USING GEOSPATIAL DATA

Summary/Abstract: Severe winter conditions, including extended snow cover and frequent frosty days, increase the risk of traffic accidents due to icing, leading to more accidents, even with injuries and fatalities. Erzurum (Eastern Anatolia Region, Turkey), with its harsh winters, stands out as a city requiring attention in this regard. The study focused on Erzurum city center, where the combination of winter weather conditions (October–April) and high traffic volume heightened the accident risk from icing in the period 2017–2022. Accident data from the General Directorate of Security of the Republic of Turkey and weather data from the General Directorate of Meteorology of the Republic of Turkey were analyzed, along with the area’s topographical characteristics (slope and aspect). The performed spatio-temporal analysis revealed that most accidents occurred in January (69 cases) and between 17:00 and 00:00 (136 cases). Accidents were linked to specific weather conditions: air temperatures between −11.7 and 0.6 °C, soil temperatures from −4.9 to −0.8 °C, wind intensity of 0 to 1.1 m/s, humidity levels between 81% and 100%, and cloudiness between 6 and 8.9. Hot Spot Analysis identified high-risk locations, including Saray Bosna Avenue, Atatürk Boulevard, and several major junctions. The study also suggested alternative systems to reduce accidents caused by icing on these routes.

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