Exponential forecasting of the tourism flows between North Macedonia and Bulgaria with the help of the TIBCO platform
Exponential forecasting of the tourism flows between North Macedonia and Bulgaria with the help of the TIBCO platform

Summary/Abstract: The present paper regards the problems of the exponential forecasting of the number of the number of the tourism arrivals comprising the tourism flows from North Macedonia to Bulgaria and vice versa with the help of the TIBCO ® platform of data and statistical processing in real time. The tourism flows from and each of these two Balkan countries have plaid and important role in the development of local tourism industries especially of the cross-border regions. In the past two years, there are significant fluctuations and declines and the present papers tries to provide a scenically reasonable look into the future of the development of the tourism flows between these two countries. The paper regards the task of creating a forecasting model for the number of the tourism arrivals from North Macedonia to Bulgaria and vice versa. This task meets with the solving of 5 major problems: (i) Building of an appropriate and reliable data time series; (ii) Determining the time series pattern, or the so-called “forecast profile” and choosing the appropriate forecasting technique and model; (iii) Initializing the parameters of the chosen forecasting technique; (iv) Calculating the forecast values and forecast errors measures; (v) Drawing the respective conclusions. 2major forecasting models were applied by the use of the Holt-Winter methods for multiple and additive cylicity. The paper outlines as main conclusions that the optimistic views for the development of tourism flows exchange between North Macedonia and Bulgaria are significantly exaggerated if no correction measures are made.

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