Prioritising Supply Chain Disruptions Using a Triangulated Multi-Criteria Approach
Prioritising Supply Chain Disruptions Using a Triangulated Multi-Criteria Approach

Summary/Abstract: This paper develops and empirically validates a triangulated multi-criteria framework for identifying and prioritising supply chain disruptions in export–import companies. Addressing the lack of methodological approaches that simultaneously integrate expert knowledge, structured prioritisation, and fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation, the study combines a systematic literature review, a hybrid Focus Group–Nominal Group Technique (FG–NGT), an original Composite Weighted Coverage Index (CWCI), and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). The framework is applied in two large Slovenian export–import firms, involving academic experts in the evaluation of criteria and industry experts in the identification and assessment of disruptions. The results show that detectability and impact severity constitute the most influential evaluation criteria, while supplier-related disruptions—particularly delivery delays, raw material shortages, and supplier financial instability—represent the most critical risks. Internal disruptions, although frequent, are perceived as less strategically significant due to controllability bias and the normalisation of operational inefficiencies. The study contributes a structured, transparent, and replicable methodological approach for disruption assessment, advances understanding of the mechanisms driving managerial risk prioritisation, and provides actionable guidance for strengthening resilience strategies in globally integrated supply chains.

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