THE SOVEREIGN MIRAGE: HOW GUINEA’S JUNTA IS ENGINEERING DEMOCRACY WITHOUT LIBERTY
THE SOVEREIGN MIRAGE: HOW GUINEA’S JUNTA IS ENGINEERING DEMOCRACY WITHOUT LIBERTY

Summary/Abstract: This article delivers a rigorous political-economy analysis of Guinea’s drift into what the authors term “simulated democracy” following the military coup of September 5th, 2021 led by Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya. They argue that the junta has systematically hollowed out democratic institutions—not to enable a transition to civilian rule, but to construct a carefully managed façade of legitimacy that conceals a deeper project of authoritarian consolidation. The authors situate the coup within Guinea’s long history of personalized rule and constitutional manipulation, from Sékou Touré to Professor Alpha Condé, drawing on Guillermo O’Donnell’s theories of delegative and simulated democracy to introduce the incisive concept of “democracy without sovereignty,” in which democratic forms persist while substantive authority remains monopolized by the military.The article deconstructs the regime’s strategy in detail, examining the suspension of major opposition parties, the instrumentalization of the judiciary, restrictions on the media, and the orchestration of a constitutional referendum designed to entrench—not relinquish—military power. The case of former Prime Minister Ibrahima Kassory Fofana, a U.S. citizen, serves as a diagnostic lens revealing the junta’s contempt for judicial independence and international norms: his arbitrary detention, medical neglect, and the junta’s open defiance of a binding ECOWAS Court of Justice ruling ordering his release illustrate the regime’s broader strategy of legal nihilism.The analysis also broadens to expose the geopolitical and economic forces shaping the crisis, emphasizing the struggle for control over Guinea’s immense reserves of bauxite, iron ore, and critical minerals. The authors contend that the junta’s authoritarian trajectory is intertwined with a nexus linking military elites to international economic interests, enabling a renewed form of resource predation.In conclusion, Guinea stands today at a critical and perilous crossroads. The constitutional referendum of 21 September 2025 has not resolved the crisis; rather, it has deepened it by entrenching a new architecture of authoritarian governance and perpetuating the long-standing erosion of democratic norms, institutional checks and balances, and the sovereignty of the Guinean people.The presidential election announced by the military junta for 28 December 2025 must be understood in this context. Far from marking a return to constitutional order, this electoral process—conceived, organized, and controlled by a transitional military authority—constitutes a regression into non-democratic governance. Such an election cannot meet the minimal conditions of legitimacy, transparency, or political pluralism. For this reason, the international community—including the United Nations, the African Union, ECOWAS, the European Union, and particularly the White House—must adopt a firm, unified, and principled position.

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