BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S EU INTEGRATION IN THE SHADOW OF THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY?
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA’S EU INTEGRATION IN THE SHADOW OF THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY?

Summary/Abstract: The geopolitical upheaval triggered by the Russia-Ukraine War has induced significant shifts in the European security architecture and enlargement policy, with profound implications for the Western Balkans. Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a country still grappling with internal divisions and institutional fragility three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA), has emerged as a critical focal point within this readjusted geopolitical context. The European Union's (EU) enlargement policy, which has stalled due to both BiH's internal problems and the challenges the EU has encountered, has begun a new phase in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine War. BiH was swiftly recognized as a candidate for EU membership in the wake of the war and received the green light to start accession negotiations. This study examines whether the Russia-Ukraine War poses a threat or an opportunity for BiH's European future—on the one hand, disrupting BiH's internal balance by encouraging the separatist rhetoric of Republika Srpska (RS) leader Milorad Dodik, while on the other hand paving the way for faster integration into the European Union. The study argues that the answer depends on whether the EU adopts a renewed enlargement strategy that simultaneously addresses security concerns and democratic reforms, while placing particular emphasis on Serbia.

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