Ograniczenia reakcji liberalnych demokracji na działania poniżej progu wojny w cyberprzestrzeni
Limitations on Liberal Democracies’ Responses to Sub-Threshold Activities in Cyberspace

Summary/Abstract: The paper examines the ability of liberal democracies – primarily in Europe – to counter hostile activities that fall below the threshold of armed conflict in cyberspace. This analysis occurs within the context of an increasingly polycentric international order, the resurgence of realism in international relations (following its previous retreat) and intensified technological competition among dominant actors. It begins with the persistent gap between adversaries’ “operational time” and democracies’ “political time”, which is most evident in attribution processes and in the prioritisation of technical arrangements over political decisions. The study aims to explain the determinants of this gap and its implications for European resilience while outlining potential trajectories of threat evolution between 2014 and 2025, with particular emphasis on the period since the onset of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine (from 2022 to 2025). The analysis addresses four key areas: the systemic context and the growing role of cyberspace within a polycentric balance of power; the institutional characteristics of liberal democracy that lead to decision-making delays during kinetic-digital crises; the spectrum and mechanisms of sub-threshold operations (activities below the threshold of war); and the effectiveness and limitations of the European Union (EU) and its Member States’ responses to cyber threats. To achieve these objectives, the author primarily employs qualitative methods, combining a comparative analysis of EU and Member-State regulatory and institutional frameworks with an examination of strategic documents and case studies of Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) operations.

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