STRATEGIC HEDGING IN A MULTIPOLAR NEIGHBORHOOD: AZERBAIJAN BETWEEN RUSSIA, TÜRKİYE, AND THE WEST
STRATEGIC HEDGING IN A MULTIPOLAR NEIGHBORHOOD: AZERBAIJAN BETWEEN RUSSIA, TÜRKİYE, AND THE WEST

Summary/Abstract: This article examines Azerbaijan’s foreign policy behavior through the lens of strategic hedging in an increasingly multipolar international system. Positioned at the intersection of Russian influence, Turkish strategic partnership, and Western normative and economic engagement, Azerbaijan has pursued a calibrated foreign policy that avoids rigid alignment while maximizing autonomy and regime security. Drawing on strategic hedging theory and small-state foreign policy literature, the study analyzes Azerbaijan’s post– Second Karabakh War diplomacy and its responses to shifting regional and global power dynamics. Using qualitative document analysis of official statements, policy documents, and secondary academic sources, the article argues that Azerbaijan’s hedging strategy is neither passive nor opportunistic, but a deliberate and adaptive approach shaped by historical vulnerabilities, energy geopolitics, and regional security imperatives. The findings suggest that Azerbaijan simultaneously balances, bandwagons, and engages selectively with competing powers, thereby enhancing its strategic resilience in the South Caucasus. The article contributes to international relations scholarship by demonstrating how strategic hedging operates beyond East Asian cases and by highlighting Azerbaijan as a distinctive example of middle-power agency in a contested multipolar neighborhood.

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