PROBLEMA TRANSNISTREANĂ PRIN PRISMA MODELĂRII ȘI PROGNOZEI POLITICE
THE TRANSNISTRIAN ISSUE THROUGH THE PRISM OF POLITICAL MODELING AND FORECASTING

Summary/Abstract: The Transnistrian conflict, one of the longest-lasting frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space, continues to challenge both scholars and policymakers. This article examines the Transnistrian issue through the dual lenses of political modelling and forecasting, aiming to identify the structural and contingent variables that determine its potential trajectories. By employing systems modelling, scenario analysis, and game theory, the study explores plausible pathways for the conflict’s evolution over the next decade, contextualizing them within the broader dynamics of European security and the shifting balance of power in Eastern Europe. The research argues that predictive political analysis, when grounded in transparent data and interdisciplinary collaboration, can serve as a strategic instrument for anticipating developments rather than merely reacting to them. It also assesses the interplay between Moldova’s European integration process, Russia’s regional strategy, and the role of the European Union as an increasingly active security actor. Ultimately, the study highlights how modelling and foresight can enhance policy resilience, contributing to a more anticipatory governance approach toward the Transnistrian settlement.

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