DINAMICA VOTULUI ANTI-UE ÎN REPUBLICA MOLDOVA: CONTINUITATE ŞI CORELAȚII ELECTORALE (2024-2025)
THE DYNAMICS OF THE ANTI-EU VOTE IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA. CONTINUITY AND CORRELATIONS (2024-2025)

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the persistence and reconfiguration of anti-European electoral behavior in the Republic of Moldova by analyzing the relationship between the “NO“ vote in the 2024 constitutional referendum and the electoral performance of three emerging political actors in the 2025 parliamentary elections: the Patriotic Bloc, the “Alternativa“ Bloc, and the “Democraþia Acasã“ Party. Using a correlational analysis based on 2.180 polling stations, the research identifies three distinct mechanisms of electoral conversion: structural capture (r ≈ 0.83), opportunistic reorientation (r ≈ 0.61), and diffuse mobilization (r ≈ 0.15). The findings indicate that anti-EU mobilization was not an isolated episode but the expression of a hybrid political influence infrastructure, most notably linked to the Shor network, which adapted and redistributed itself within the post-ban electoral landscape. The study demonstrates that the referendum’s negative vote functions as a reliable predictive indicator of subsequent electoral behavior and highlights the need to strengthen democratic resilience against hybrid interference.

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