Analiza determinantów przepływów handlowych na świecie w latach 2000–2020 z wykorzystaniem modeli grawitacyjnych
Analysis of Trade Flows’ Determinants from 2000 to 2020 Using Gravity Models

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to examine the factors influencing the volume of trade flows between two countries. An extended gravity model was utilized along with the following econometric tools: Fixed Effects (FE), Correlated Random Effects (CRE), and Poisson Fixed Effects (PFE) estimated with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Each model was theoretically justified, and replicable R codes were included to enable the correctness of the calculations to be checked. The study tested the following hypotheses: 1) traditional variables (GDP of the exporter and importer, as well as the distance between countries) are significant predictors of trade levels; 2) societal wealth, measured by GDP per capita, positively influences trade; 3) a shared border increases trade; 4) membership in the European Union positively impacts a country’s exports; 5) a common language and shared history (colonial ties) positively influence bilateral trade; and 6) similarity in legal systems increases trade exchange. The analysis confirmed that there is no basis for rejecting hypotheses 2), 3), 5), and 6). The impact of distance on trade and the importerʼs EU membership proved to be more nuanced.

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