The Political Economy of Turkey’s Eastern Turn: An Empirical Analysis of Erdogan’s State Visits (2003-2010)
The Political Economy of Turkey’s Eastern Turn: An Empirical Analysis of Erdogan’s State Visits (2003-2010)

Summary/Abstract: With the rise of the Justice and Development Party under the leadership of Recep T. Erdogan, Turkish foreign policy has experienced an “Eastern turn”, which raised question marks in the minds of many. In this study, we investigate the “Eastern turn” in Turkish foreign relations through an analysis of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s foreign visits to the non-Western world between 2003 and 2010. Using Poisson regression models, we test ideological and economic explanations of Turkey’s “Eastern turn”. We fail to find a particular anti-Western trend in Erdogan’s foreign visits. To the contrary, Erdogan’s most frequent destinations in the non-Western world were pro-Western countries. The results of our statistical analyses provide support to the argument that the Justice and Development Party’s foreign policy has been guided more by a sensible economic rationale than by ideological orientation.

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