Enerji ve Metal Oynaklıkları ile Türk Borsası Arasındaki İlişkinin Jeopolitik Belirsizlikler Altında İncelenmesi
Investigating the Relationship between Energy and Metal Volatility and the Turkish Stock Exchange under Geopolitical Uncertainties

Summary/Abstract: Energy prices, particularly oil and natural gas, play an important role in macroeconomic balances in terms of their impact on both production costs and consumption expenditures. On the other hand, metals such as gold and silver, which are closely linked to global economic activity, are considered safe havens and potential protection against inflation in the long run, and are therefore closely followed by investors. Geopolitical uncertainties emerging at both the global and local levels can affect commodity and stock prices, sometimes causing short-term and sometimes long-term price volatility. In this context, understanding the dynamics of financial markets and investor behavior has become a process that goes beyond economic indicators alone; it also involves factors such as energy and commodity prices, as well as political and geopolitical developments, which play a critical role. Understanding how these factors are interrelated can enable investors to make informed decisions and develop strategic responses to market movements. Against this background, the aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the Turkish stock market and energy and metal volatilities, as well as to determine how this relationship changes under geopolitical uncertainties. To this end, empirical analyses are conducted using daily data between 02.01.2001 and 26.05.2023, employing the Wavelet Coherence and Vector Wavelet Coherence methods. In the study, the Partial Wavelet Coherence method is also applied in order to test the validity of the Wavelet Coherence and Vector Wavelet Coherence results. Wavelet Coherence analysis results show that there are strong relationships between energy and metal volatilities and the BIST 100 that vary both over time and across periods, and that the relationship between metal volatilities and the BIST 100 is stronger than the relationship between energy volatilities and the BIST 100. Vector Wavelet Coherence analyses reveal that geopolitical uncertainties significantly increase the relationship between energy and metal volatilities and the BIST 100. Partial Wavelet Coherence analyses also demonstrate that the relationship between energy and metal volatility and the BIST 100 is stronger under geopolitical uncertainties. The findings of this study will provide important insights for policymakers and investors related to the Turkish stock market.

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