The Future of Turkish-Western Relations
The Future of Turkish-Western Relations

Summary/Abstract: The basic structural pattern of Turkish-Western relations is characterized by a dominance of Turkey-U.S. relations and a diminishing importance of Turkey-EU relations. The uncertainties about future developments in the Middle East, especially the political fall-out of the Syrian civil war, demand close political coordination between Ankara and Washington. This coordination will most likely persist in spite of numerous issues that could have negative impacts on the relationship, such as Turkish-Israeli confrontations, Turkish-U.S. differences over the Iranian nuclear program, or Turkish-Armenian conflicts. Relations between Brussels and Ankara will hardly go beyond (intensive) political dialogue given the inability of the EU to develop comprehensive strategic foreign policies in the framework of its Common Foreign and Security Policy. Furthermore, EU-Turkey relations will be severely constrained by the continuing deadlock of accession negotiations. Turkey’s ability to make full use of the potential of the AKP’s “strategic depth” foreign policy approach will be strongly influenced by the government’s ability to bridge the serious domestic political divides as well as by regional developments. The less conducive these are for the continuation of Ahmet Davutoğlu’s “zero problems” approach to relations with neighboring countries the more will Ankara be in need of cultivating the existing bonds with its Western allies.

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