Assessing the Potential of a Terrorist Attack at the Sub-national Level: An Option of Local Governments
Assessing the Potential of a Terrorist Attack at the Sub-national Level: An Option of Local Governments

Summary/Abstract: Terrorist threats in the European Union have increasingly highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and soft targets, with local governments playing a key role in public safety. The objective of this study was to design and test a simple methodology for assessing terrorist risk at the sub-national level. A two-step model was applied. First, soft targets were identified through qualitative analysis of legislative and scientific sources. Second, geospatial and statistical data were used to evaluate the concentration of these targets and their time-dependent vulnerability. The methodology was tested in the Czech Republic, where municipalities and regions represent a fragmented security environment. The model incorporated endogenous factors such as population size and service capacity, as well as exogenous factors such as tourism intensity. The findings showed that large cities, including Prague and Brno, had the highest risk potential, but smaller municipalities with strong tourism or cultural functions, such as Český Krumlov and spa towns, also reached elevated scores. The study concluded that the proposed model provided a practical and transferable tool for prioritizing protection measures. It offered guidance for municipal and regional authorities and supported European security federalism.

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