Bańki spekulacyjne w epoce innowacji
Speculative bubbles in the age of innovation

Summary/Abstract: The article examines selected episodes of speculative bubbles in the context of technological innovations across five historical periods: the era of early financial speculation, steel, oil, the internet, and biotechnology. All, except the first, center on major innovations characteristic of their respective periods, which serve as reference points for the analysis. The study employs a comparative method based on historical data, market indicators, and case studies, enabling the identification of shared mechanisms of formation, growth, and bursting of the bubbles. These insights are also relevant today, as they point to the recurrence of cognitive and institutional errors despite the cyclical nature of the phenomenon. The findings reveal case-specific features alongside common patterns of the speculative cycle, comprising an innovation phase, rapid asset-price appreciation, a market peak, and a sharp correction. Despite technological and institutional differences across cases, the determinants of bubbles - such as excessive investor optimism, easy access to capital, and underestimation of risk-remain similar. Overvaluations, as a component of innovation adoption, align with Minsky’s mechanism, and their magnitude increases with valuation uncertainty and conversion costs.

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