Rola opadów atmosferycznych w modelowaniu zmian środowiska przyrodniczego obszarów górskich – w jaki sposób modele klimatyczne determinują wyniki? (Przykład z Polskich Karpat)
The role of precipitation in the modeling of natural environmental changes in mountain areas – How do climate models determine the results? (A case study from the Polish Carpathians)

Summary/Abstract: An increase in precipitation accelerates soil erosion and intensifies sediment transport, particularly in mountainous catchments. Given the changing climatic conditions, especially the increasing intensity of meteorological events coinciding with strong anthropopression, reliable projections of these changes at a local scale are a key issue, among other things, for sustainable ecosystem service management. Projections of future changes are typically conducted in two stages: in the first stage, climate models are used, while the actual assessment of the impact of these changes is carried out using environmental models. Both stages are usually conducted independently and by different expert groups. This study aims to assess the impact of selecting climate models and scenarios on the results of environmental modelling. Using the upper Raba River catchment as a case study, the sediment load delivered to the reservoir was estimated based on selected change scenarios. Differences in the developed forecasts may reach up to 6000 t of suspended sediment annually. The results obtained demonstrate that the inappropriate selection of model variables (in this case, a poorly constructed set of climate models) can lead to extreme results and, consequently, to improper management of the natural environment.

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