Czynniki wpływające na rozpoczęcie wojny z Ukrainą przez Rosję (Część 1)
Factors influencing Russia to start the war with Ukraine (Part 1)

Summary/Abstract: The article examines the factors that influenced Russia’s decision to go to war with Ukraine. It highlights the complexity of this decision, taking into account both internal and external factors that shaped the Kremlin’s policy in the period before the outbreak of the conflict. Russia perceived NATO’s expansion to the East and Ukraine’s efforts to integrate with the West as a threat to its sphere of influence. The Kremlin feared that Ukraine, a strategically important country, could become a Western bridgehead on Russia’s borders, which would upset the balance of power in the region. The aim of the article is to analyze the factors that influenced Russia’s decision to go to war with Ukraine, as well as to understand how these factors interacted and shaped the course of the conflict. In this publication, I seek answers to the following research problem: what factors influenced the Kremlin’s decision to go to war with Ukraine? In analyzing the key determinants that influenced Russia’s decision to go to war with Ukraine, I draw on research by historians, military experts, political scientists, and analysts to better understand the background of this tragic war. In order to comprehensively understand the determinants of the conflict, the article relies on a multi-faceted methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative analyses. The methodology I have adopted includes the analysis of literary sources and documents, political-strategic analysis, comparative methodology, analysis of empirical data, and interviews and expert opinions, which are secondary sources of the analysis.Before launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian leader used war rhetoric to strengthen his authority, including the need to strengthen the image of the government and distract the public from economic problems and internal political tensions. Historical factors are also important – including the narrative of Ukraine as part of the “Russian world” – and the desire to rebuild influence in the region.The analysis of the factors leading to the outbreak of the war shows the complex complexity of the causes of this conflict, in which both internal and external elements played a significant role. These are also historical grievances, geopolitical fears and previous actions related to Crimea and Donbas. The correct interpretation of these factors is crucial for a fuller understanding of the conflict and its global implications. Russia perceives Western actions as a threat to its position, which has contributed to its efforts to strengthen its sphere of influence. The Kremlin’s domestic political needs have had an equally important influence, using the conflict as a means to strengthen its power and unite society around a common enemy. The conclusion from the analysis of the sources is therefore that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the result of accumulated, long-standing tensions of geopolitical, historical and domestic origins, which have led to an escalation of violence.

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