Wzrost politycznej zależności Republiki Białorusi od Federacji Rosyjskiej w latach 2020-2025 jako konsekwencja stłumienia protestów w 2020 roku
The Increase in the Political Dependence of the Republic of Belarus on the Russian Federation 2020–2025 as a Consequence of the Suppression of Protests in 2020

Summary/Abstract: The events related to social protests and their suppression in Belarus in 2020 had a significant impact on the political situation of this country and the Central and Eastern European region. This article analyses the increased political dependence of the Republic of Belarus on the Russian Federation as a consequence of the brutal suppression of protests against the fraudulent presidential elections. Faced with international isolation and sanctions imposed by Western countries, Alexander Lukashenko’s regime was forced to strengthen cooperation with Moscow, leading to a further limitation of Belarus’s sovereignty. The aim of this study is to assess the scale of Belarus’s dependence on the Russian Federation after the suppression of the 2020 protests, with particular attention to the main mechanisms driving this dependence. The initial thesis assumes that after the imposition of sanctions on Belarus from 2020 to 2025, the country was compelled to shift its cooperation vector towards the Russian Federation, which directly influenced the extent of its dependence on Russia. The article presents the mechanisms of this dependence, including military, economic and social aspects. The analysis employs research methods based on the examination of source materials, reports and expert analyses. Additionally, the author refers to legal acts, reports from international organisations, academic publications and statements by state officials. The conclusions of this study indicate that after the suppression of the 2020 protests, Belarus became highly dependent on the Russian Federation, losing a significant part of its sovereignty in favour of Moscow’s geopolitical and strategic interests. However, it continues its attempts to maintain some degree of independence from Russia. This phenomenon has far-reaching consequences not only for Belarus’s internal politics but also for the stability of the entire Eastern European region.

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