Theoretical Aspects of Black Swan Scenarios and Predictable Events Techniques
Theoretical Aspects of Black Swan Scenarios and Predictable Events Techniques

Summary/Abstract: The need to know the future represents people’s constant interest, manifested by the desire to see into the future. Therefore, the desire to know what is going to happen can have scientific characteristics, and the knowledge of the possible future can be foreshadowed by the use of certain correctly structured research topics, with the aim of obtaining forecasts. Particularly in the field of security, the evolution of a mechanism of anticipation can represent a point of rebirth of the methodology of security studies and a pragmatic way to analyze and construct strategic scenarios. Through the use of complete and coherent solutions aimed at practicing structured analytical techniques, the leaders of the political-military group have had access to scientifically based options in order to adopt a certain decision. However, in the security domain, it is difficult to control or define decisions subordinate to human will, this being the main impediment to anticipating the relations between the main actors at international. Scenario analysis, like other structured analytical techniques, is a complementary tool, not a substitute for the quantitative and qualitative methods of the social sciences. It is a tool that stimulates creativity, broadens perspectives, creates preconceived cognitive frameworks and generates new research questions. In addition, scenario analysis has another virtue, being a tool to support strategic planning that contributes to research, having political relevance in security and defense fields, That is, the research results adapt to the parameters of technical-political debates, becoming attractive for political decision-makers.

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