Macroprudential Supervision and Geopolitical Risk: An Analysis of the Polish Financial Authorities’ Publications (2015–2022)
Macroprudential Supervision and Geopolitical Risk: An Analysis of the Polish Financial Authorities’ Publications (2015–2022)

Summary/Abstract: Macroprudential supervision aims to mitigate systemic risk and, consequently, improve the stability of the financial system. Geopolitical risk is one of the factors taken into account in systemic risk. The 2022 war in Ukraine heightened the relevance of geopolitical risk for Polish policymakers. However, no studies to date have examined how geopolitical risk is incorporated into account in the work of Poland’s macroprudential supervisory body competent for macroprudential supervision, the Financial Stability Committee (KSF). The aim of this paper is to analyze the application of macroprudential supervision by the KSF in the context of geopolitical risk. I examine the KSF’s statements and compare them with those of relevant international bodies. My findings indicate that the KSF addresses geopolitical risk far less frequently than other macroprudential authorities and does not publish in-depth analyses on the topic. Additionally, the KSF lacks a dedicated geopolitical risk unit, which contrasts sharply with other relevant authorities, on which it was originally modeled. I analyze how the way KSF and relevant international bodies address geopolitical risk through a semantic analysis of publicly available statements. The cutoff date for data analysis is the end of June 2022.

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