A pénzügyi kimutatások csalási kockázatának összehasonlító elemzése a román és magyar határmenti megyék cégei esetében
Comparative Analysis of the Fraud Risk of Financial Statements for Companies in the Romanian and Hungarian Border Counties

Summary/Abstract: The main goal of the research is to examine how the reporting companies manipulate the company’s financial reports. The analyzed database contains the financial statements of the border Hungarian- Romanian counties (Szatmár, Bihar, Arad, Temes, Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Hajdú-Bihar, Békés, Csongrád-Csanád) for the period from 2014 to 2019. The database contains companies that had at least 100,000 euros in total sales and total assets in the average of the analyzed years and prepared an accounting report for each analyzed year. Considering the average of the six years examined, the database corresponding to the criteria above contained 2,331 Hungarian and 2,437 Romanian companies. The five-variable Beneish M-score model was used to investigate the manipulation of financial statements. The following decision criteria were used for the Beneish model: if the M-score is less than -2.22, manipulation is unlikely; if the M-score is between -2.22 and -1.78, manipulation is possible; if the M-score is greater than -1.78, manipulation is likely. 26.01% of the companies in the Hungarian border counties probably manipulate their financial statements, which is 24.58% in the case of Romanian border companies. 66.39% of the companies in the counties on the Hungarian side probably do not manipulate their accounting reports, while this ratio is 67.52% on the Romanian side. The difference is caused by the so called „gray zone” (manipulation is possible). It can be concluded that the companies of the Romanian border counties manipulate their accounting reports less, but a statistical test cannot support this. The average Beneish M-score of the companies in both regions is small negative values in each examined year (Hungarian side: -0.83; Romanian side: -0.90), which exceeds the value of -1.78, thus falling into the possibly manipulated range. As a final statement, it can be stated that no significant difference can be shown between the companies of the two examined regions regarding the manipulation of the accounting report.

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