ИЗБОРИ ЗА ОДБОРНИКЕ СКУПШТИНЕ ГРАДА БЕОГРАДА 2022. ГОДИНЕ – АКТЕРИ, РЕЗУЛТАТИ, ПОСЛЕДИЦЕ
BELGRADE CITY ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2022 – ACTORS, RESULTS AND CONSEQUENCES

Summary/Abstract: This article explores the background incentives and the context of 2022 Belgrade elections and presents the analysis of electoral results and their consequences, as well as the local government formation process. Elections for the capital’s assembly were held on April 3, 2022, simultaneously with presidential, parliamentary and local elections in 13 local self-government units in Serbia. Several conclusions can be drawn from the analysis of the elections for the Belgrade City Assembly. First, these were the only elections where there was at least partial uncertainty regarding the election results. While a convincing victory of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) was expected in the presidential and parliamentary elections, the Belgrade elections are the only ones where it was believed during the election campaign that the opposition could win a sufficient percentage of votes to shake the stable decade-long rule of the SNS. Second, there was a certain increase in electoral turnout in Belgrade (57.85% in total) compared to the earlier elections. The 2022 electoral turnout was app. 7% higher than the 2018 turnout, meaning that 109.987 more voters participated in the last elections, which is not negligible. Furthermore, the Belgrade electoral turnout was particularly low in the parliamentary elections in 2020 (38.27%) and in the referendum on the constitutional changes in 2022 (27.04%), which was an indicator of a decrease in support for the ruling parties. In this context, the data on the increase in the voters’ electoral participation in the 2022 elections indicated that political actors managed to attract at least part of the disaffected voters. Third, in line with pre-electoral expectations, the election results show a decrease in support for SNS in the capital. While in the previous two city assembly convocations (2014-2018 and 2018-2022) the SNS independently had the majority of mandates, after the first electoral results appeared in the 2022 elections it was questionable whether SNS together with its traditional partner SPS would have the necessary majority for the local government formation. The SNS won 48 mandates, while the SPS has 8 councillors, which is less than the 64 mandates that the SNS had independently in 2018. These results are particularly indicative if we take into account that Aleksandar Šapić’s political party SPAS, which had significant support in the earlier Belgrade elections, merged with the SNS just before these elections. The merging of SPAS into the SNS shed additional light on the dynamics within the SNS and caused splits within the Belgrade branch of the SNS. Fourth, opposition parties in Belgrade received stronger electoral support, primarily in the central city municipalities. The growth of parties on ideological poles was especially noted. Particularly successful was the green-left coalition Moramo gathered around Don’t Let Belgrade D(r)own (Ne davimo Beograd), which won three times more votes than in the previous elections and was positioned as the third-placed list in the elections. With its 13 councillors, it may have a significant influence on the shaping of parliamentary debates and the agenda although it should be noted that in competitive authoritarian regimes such as the one in Serbia, the opposition has narrowed opportunities for action. The analysis of the election results also indicates a significant growth of the far-right parties. Unlike the 2018-2022 local assembly, when no right-wing party had councillors in the city assembly, in this convocation there will be as many as 15 far-right councillors. Although they will be in the opposition in the city assembly, the assumption is that their critical potential will still be somewhat lower compared to the left, given their disunity, lack of solidarity and common strategies, but also flirting with the ruling majority (at least as long as there is agreement on identity and national issues). Fifth, the ruling majority in this assembly was formed by the SNS and SPS with the support of one, now independent, councillor elected on the right-wing NADA list. The current majority in the city assembly consists of 57 councillors – this is a relatively weak majority, which will have challenges in the decision-making. With the expectation that the opposition will also be active, loud, and critical, it is unlikely that this convocation of the Belgrade Assembly will last the entire mandate.

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