Assessing the Risks of a Freight Forwarder Entering the Transport Market with Stochastic Demand
Assessing the Risks of a Freight Forwarder Entering the Transport Market with Stochastic Demand
Author(s): Vitalii Naumov, Guldana Nugymanova, Ihor Taran, Yana LitvinovaSubject(s): Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, Methodology and research technology, Applied Sociology, Financial Markets, Transport / Logistics
Published by: Žilinská univerzita v Žilině
Keywords: freight forwarding; risk assessment; transportation market; simulation model; regression analysis;
Summary/Abstract: This research investigates freight forwarders' operational risks when entering a new transport market characterized by stochastic demand. A simulation model was developed to represent the service request flow potentially experienced by a freight forwarder in a new market. The proposed model incorporates key operational parameters such as average request interval, service tariff, and request processing time. Based on the simulation results, a regression model was developed to predict the market entry risk. The obtained model demonstrates that the risk increases with longer average request intervals between service requests and decreases with higher service tariffs. The findings provide insights for freight forwarders seeking to enter new markets. The simulation-based approach offers a practical tool for assessing operational risks and informing strategic decisions related to market entry and service pricing.
Journal: Komunikácie - vedecké listy Žilinskej univerzity v Žiline
- Issue Year: 27/2025
- Issue No: 2
- Page Range: 11-20
- Page Count: 10
- Language: English
