Energy mix and its implications on the Vietnamese economy by 2030: A CGE analysis using GTAP-E-Power
Energy mix and its implications on the Vietnamese economy by 2030: A CGE analysis using GTAP-E-Power

Summary/Abstract: This study uses the GTAP-E-Power model to examine theeconomic and environmental implications of transitioningto different energy generation mixes in Vietnam by 2030.Three scenarios were considered for that year: (1) low‑coaland high-gas, (2) low-coal and high-renewables, and(3) high-coal. Scenario 2 emerges as the most balancedapproach, resulting in a 1.02% GDP decline and a 0.78%increase in CO2 emissions. In this scenario, the electron-ics sector grows slightly (+0.3%), while metals (–3.1%) andchemical products (–1.0%) experience moderate declines. Interms of exports, Scenario 2 gives rise to an increase in thetrade balance (151 million USD) and a modest gain in ex-ports to China (+0.46%), Japan (+0.37%), Korea (+0.33%),and Western Europe (+0.35%). Across all three scenarios,the output of the electronics industry shows sensitivity toenergy mix changes, while the coal mining sector seemsto be resilient to changing the energy mix.

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