Security scenarios: 3D printed firearms
Security scenarios: 3D printed firearms

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study was to determine possible future scenarios if 3D printed firearms were to be manufactured in society. Thesescenarios provide a closer examination of the factors influencing the use of this relatively new method of firearms production. Wereviewed the factors in 3D printed firearms that are relevant to various security authorities. Scenario analysis enables the examinationof problem-solving for this multi-dimensional, multi-layered and multi-scale phenomenon. The topic was approached from a systemicperspective based on complexity thinking. The scenario-creation method employed five forecasting techniques applicable to the Playbookfor Strategic Foresight and Innovation (Carleton, 2013). A context map created the basis for factor analysis, generational arcs, whitespots and expert panel. The scenarios were developed into a structural format, allowing for the description of coherent entities. Uponanalysing the scenarios, it was found that the ease of manufacturing 3D printed firearms could lead to a rapid increase in theirnumbers, potentially resulting in decreased internal and external security. The networking of manufacturers could also enable theproduction of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D printed firearms couldopen up new legal uses and possibilities.

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