Szacowanie potencjału demograficznego realizowanych i zaplanowanych inwestycji mieszkaniowych. Przykład gminy Rokietnica w powiecie poznańskim
Estimating the Demographic Potential of Ongoing and Planned Housing Investments: The Case of Rokietnica Municipality in Poznań County

Summary/Abstract: Territorial governance in suburban areas, particularly in the context of intensive residen-tial development, requires continuous monitoring of demographic and spatial processes. This articlepresents a method for estimating the demographic potential of ongoing and planned housing invest-ments, utilizing data from the General Office of Building Control and waste management declara-tions. The case study focuses on the Rokietnica municipality in Poznań County, which has experi-enced significant population growth in recent decades due to dynamic suburbanization. The analysisresults indicate strong correlations between the number of new housing units and the increase inregistrations, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed method in forecasting demographic chang-es. Despite challenges related to data quality and estimating the timing of investment completion,this method can serve as a valuable tool for local authorities and planners, enabling better alignmentof social and technical infrastructure development plans with actual population needs. The analysisshows that the estimated demographic potential of new housing investments in Rokietnica is com-parable to the number of registrations over the past five years, suggesting that the current level ofconstruction activity is sufficient to maintain the existing population growth rate. The findings of thisarticle can serve as a basis for more precise spatial planning and optimization of decisions regardinglocal infrastructure development.

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