Youth Out-Migration before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from a Depopulating Region in Poland
Youth Out-Migration before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from a Depopulating Region in Poland

Summary/Abstract: Youth mobility has been recognized as a significant catalyst of human capital redistribution across regions and countries, while universities play a significant role in youth retention and attraction. Student migration might exacerbate human capital redistribution from less developed areas to cities with high-performing universities. However, The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on people’s mobility and could possibly affect these trends. This paper identifies the scale and composition of youth out-migration (mainly student migration) from the peripheral and depopulating Lubelskie region in Poland before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. It builds on a unique dataset collected in five local census surveys conducted in 2016–2020, revealing the patterns of student enrolment and subsequent mobility of approximately 17 thousand graduates from Lublin (Poland) secondary schools. The research also benefits from individual and focused in-depth interviews with the youth conducted during the pandemic. The study revealed that every year more than 20% of graduates of secondary schools in Lublin leave their home region and predominantly continue education at higher education institutions. However, the migration rates across school-leaving exam results differ significantly, demonstrating a strong positive selectivity of out-migration. Youth enrollment at universities outside the Lubelskie region during the COVID-19 pandemic revealed the largest increase since the survey’s launch. Interviews showed little impact of the pandemic on young people’s decisions to enroll at a desirable higher education institution outside their home area. By discussing this evidence, the study contributes to the ongoing debate on the depopulation and its regional consequences. Finally, the paper offers some recommendations for regional policy.

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