Geopolitical Implications of Oil Price Forecasts: An Analysis of the Club of Rome’s Report on Global Growth Limits and Market Realities
Geopolitical Implications of Oil Price Forecasts: An Analysis of the Club of Rome’s Report on Global Growth Limits and Market Realities

Summary/Abstract: The report by the Club of Rome experts from 1972 indicated the possibility of a relatively short-term global raw material supply deficit, including energy resources. According to the authors of this document, the growing demand for resources coupled with diminishing available reserves was the cause. The anticipated outcome was a dynamic, exponential increase in commodity prices, including crude oil, in the perspective of the coming decades. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate whether the forecasts of the Club of Rome’s report from over half a century ago, regarding the rise in oil prices, are reflected in the actual market situation and to attempt to determine the potential direction of changes in the barrel prices of this commodity. The authors of the article adopted the hypothesis that the price of crude oil might not necessarily increase exponentially as global resources are depleted. As a result of the analysis of nominal and real prices of WTI crude oil after the publication of the Club of Rome’s report, i.e., from 1973 to the end of 2022 (a period of 50 years), the fundamental conclusions contained in the report have not been confirmed. A significantly different course of changes in crude oil prices in the specified period was indicated, compared to what was predicted in the report.

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