Emigration in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Empirical Evidence from the Last Two Decades
Emigration in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Empirical Evidence from the Last Two Decades

Summary/Abstract: In this study, we empirically analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusingon individual, household, regional and socio-economic determinants, including specific influences relevantto the post-conflict nature of this society. We rely on a series of annual country-representative survey datacollected over the period 2006–2010 and the latest repeated survey from 2019. This gives us the possibilityto see whether there are changes in observed determinants with a decade’s difference, all investigatedthrough non-linear econometric models. Moreover, we supplement quantitative research with qualitativein-depth interviews to enrich our results with deeper insights collected from both emigrants and potentialemigrants in BiH. Our findings indicate that higher intentions to emigrate are linked to typical individualand household conditions: young, educated and low-income respondents all report high intentions to doso. However, the socio-economic environment characterised by economic – and, even more, by political– instability increases these intentions considerably. Our comparative analysis reports that the socio-economicenvironment has taken primacy over individual characteristics as drivers of emigrations which dominateda decade ago. Conventional thinking that economic drivers of emigration intentions dominate nowadayshave not been confirmed. Policymakers should focus on improving primarily political stability as a measurethat will decrease emigration intentions in this post-conflict society.

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