An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road Cover Image

An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road
An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

Author(s): Piotr Gorzelańczyk, Przemysław Grobelny
Subject(s): Tourism, Transport / Logistics
Published by: Žilinská univerzita v Žilině
Keywords: road accident; road type; forecasting; exponential smoothing

Summary/Abstract: A surprising number of people die on Polish highways every year. Despite the fact that number is decreasing year after year, it is still rather considerable. Due to the epidemic, the costs of the road accidents were significantly lowered, but they still remain fairly large. Understanding the roads where the majority of accidents happen and the anticipated number of accidents in the next years are necessary to lower this number. The purpose of the article was to forecast the number of accidents that would happen on Polish roads based on the kind of roads. To do this, annual accident statistics from the Police's statistics for the years 2001-2021 were reviewed, and a forecast for the years 2022-2031 was produced. It is clear that either the accident rate is increasing or it is steady. Predictions also suggest that a large increase in accidents on Polish roads may be expected given the current situation.

  • Issue Year: 26/2024
  • Issue No: 1
  • Page Range: 13-22
  • Page Count: 10
  • Language: English