A Bargaining Model Perspective of the Exogenous Explanations of the War between Russia and Ukraine
A Bargaining Model Perspective of the Exogenous Explanations of the War between Russia and Ukraine

Summary/Abstract: The subject of the current paper concerns the (ongoing at the moment) Russian military invasion of Ukraine started on February 24th, 2022, specifically the bargaining failures that led to war, or the exogenous causes of the direct military confrontations between the two sides conventional armed forces after eight years of protracted, low-intensity warfare in Donbas/Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The main questions that will guide the research are: (i) why negotiations between the belligerent parties failed before the war; (ii) what can be inferred on war duration and termination from the identified exogenous causes for war. To address these issues, I rely on the game theory literature as the main method of research. From a theoretical viewpoint, I aim for the results of the research to contribute to the academic endeavour of analysing and understanding the causes of the war in Ukraine. The practical relevance of the results will consist of setting the basis for assessing the regional security situation in the Black Sea Region, but also the international security framework in the new context. The main limitation for addressing the proposed subject is the lack of reliable data from the belligerent sides on the prior bargaining process that occurred before the war.

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