Dywersyfikacja ryzyka związanego z cyklem koniunkturalnym w systemie emerytalnym w Polsce
Diversification of risk connected with the business cycle in the pension system in Poland

Summary/Abstract: The article analyses whether the introduction of the two pillars to the pension system in Poland increases risk diversification. To this end, the author has defined the degree of correlation of the business cycle on the labour market (which determines the rate of return in the 1st pillar) and the financial market (which determines the rate of return in the 2nd pillar) in Poland and other 24 economies. It has been shown that the correlation of cyclical changes on the stock exchange and changes of the payroll fund in the economy is low, which increases risk diversification in the pension system. It needs to be pointed out, however, that a delay of the cycle on the labour market in comparison with the cycle on the stock exchange is insignificant, thanks to which the increase in risk diversification by means of introduction of two pillars to the pension system is moderate.

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