Предпоставки и теоретични основи за развитие на инструментариума за стрес тест на публичните финанси
Determinants And Theoretical Foundations For Development Of Stress Testing Toolbox Of Public Finances

Summary/Abstract: The present study examines the theoretical development of methods, models and tools for conducting a stress test in the analysis of the sustainability of the financial system and public finances. It traces their origins to the early 1990s, initially focused on micro- and macroprudential supervision of financial institutions and also public debt and budget balance, later developed into an analysis of the sustainability of public finances. Detailed attention is paid to the EU approach for analyzing the condition of the state budget, highlighting the assessment of the so-called cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CABB). An alternative model for CABB assessment is presented as well, namely a dynamic model of general equilibrium (DSGE), with the aim of comparing the results of the two models and examining their advantages and disadvantages. The comparison shows that the EC model has a significant pro-cyclical impact on budgetary targets relative to the results of the DSGE model, which raises the question of whether the stabilizing effect of the EU fiscal framework is adapted to the challenges of a deep and protracted crisis.

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