Виклики у сфері безпеки в регіоні Калінінградської oбласті
Security Challenges of the Kaliningrad Region

Summary/Abstract: Attention is focused on the issues of national security of the state, taking into account the general development of the country and the realization of its national interests. It is noted that the interpretation of the essence of current threats and challenges optimizes the methodological substantiation of the tasks of guaranteeing the provision of national security. The characteristics of regional security are presented. Attention is focused on the peculiarities of the European region. The emergence of significant exogenous challenges in the 21st century, which represented a serious threat to the security of the member states of the European Union, was noted. The problems of ensuring regional security are outlined. Indicators are presented that have led to a significant increase in the risks of security instability in the European region and provide an opportunity for an uncontrolled arms race. The list of factors that cause the decline of the region is considered. Changes in the political situation of the United States of America and their impact on the situation in the European Union are characterized. The activation of the United Kingdom in matters of ensuring security in Europe in the context of NATO and due to the activation of bilateral relations with European countries was determined. It was noted that the aggressive position of the Russian Federation led to a significant deterioration of the security situation around Ukraine and directly in the region. Attention is focused on issues of national security of Poland in the current political situation. The cooperation of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland to contain the military threat from Russia was noted. The aggravation of the confrontation between Lithuania and Russia regarding the provision of Kaliningrad was emphasized. It is indicated that NATO representatives are significantly concerned about the strategic Kaliningrad region of Russia. It is noted that Russia is actively engaged in strengthening its military presence. Options for actions of the NATO army in the event of an escalation of the military conflict and expansion of the coverage area were considered. It is indicated that a possible option of escalation around Kaliningrad will cause the situation to worsen. Options for confronting the aggressor country in the short term and in the format of coexistence for a longer term are considered. The influence of Belarus on the situation in the region due to the growth of migration was noted. This leads to the discrediting of Poland and Lithuania for supporting Belarusian dissidents who seek to avoid political repression. It is stipulated that the Baltic and Polish political leaders analyze the crisis through the prism of national security. The position of Poland in the settlement of regional conflicts is considered. It is indicated that the political position of Poland should be aimed at preventing the realization of an unfavorable scenario. It is noted that the priority should be the expansion of ground forces and aviation, which ensure reliable deterrence of the Russian Federation.

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