Is the US-CHINA Competition a Case of Thucydides Trap?
Is the US-CHINA Competition a Case of Thucydides Trap?

Summary/Abstract: Background: The US-China competition is a new form of competition between the first two powers of the international system, based on cooperation and competition. This complex model of competition was described by Graham Allison like a case of the Thucydides Trap. Objectives: The objective of the current article is to determine if the US-China Competition can be considered a case of the Thucydides Trap. Methods: This article will use the case study in order to test the theory of Graham Allison. In order to test the theory, it will be used 4 steps: developing a theory, determine the necessary cases to test the theory, identify an alternative explanation, collect evidences to present why the alternative explanation didn’t happen. Results and findings: The economic evolution of China in the last years can show us that the economic growth rate is not as big as it was in 2015 and the capacity to become the first economic power it is still limited. In the same way, the South China Sea can’t play the same role as the Caribbean Sea had played for the rise of the US. Furthermore, the US-China economic competition can’t become a war since the two powers continue to cooperate like in the case of the Trade War. The findings show us that China will continue to be a challenger for the US, but its capacity to start a war it is very limited. Also, it is a big probability that the US will use the buck passing strategy in order to avoid a direct confrontation with China. Conclusions: The US-China Competition can’t become a case of the Thucydides Trap in the nearest future, but the two powers will continue to compete based on the future issues between them.

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